The Middle Eastern Muddle and its Ramifications on the Emerging World Order

When Francis Fukuyama proclaimed “The End of History” in his titular essay of 1989, ascribing the prophecy of an era of permanent peace to the ascendancy of Western liberal democracy; little did he know that his prediction would be falsified by over 20 times in the following three decades itself. https://www.war-memorial.net/wars_all.asp

Though the paradigm of contextualizing human history of warfare as a linear progression from one epochal event to another has been employed by prominent scholars such as Hegel and Marx, contemporary geopolitical events tell otherwise. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, Israel-Palestine conflict and tensions between China-Taiwan threatening to escalate, any aspirations of world peace have been effectively skuttled in at least the medium term.

The Israel Palestine conflict has been at the forefront of geopolitical turbulence, especially in the West Asian region. The struggle emanates from a complex interaction of religion, invasions and colonialism amongst several factors. The article seeks to provide a historical narrative leading to the creation of the modern day states of Israel and Palestine. Further, it provides a detailed exposition to the devastating October 7 terror attacks orchestrated on Israeli soil. Concludingly, an evaluation of the stances adopted by influential state actors such as the U.S., China and India has been undertaken to provide a holistic geopolitical analysis of the said issue.

Early History 

The theological underpinnings of the religion of Judaism can be traced back to the reign of King Hezekiah, the ruler of Judah in the late 8th century BC [approximately 741 BCE]. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hezekiah

At the time, the region was roughly contoured along the northern kingdom of Israel and the southern state of Judah. After witnessing the vanquishing of Israel by the rampant forces of the Assyrian Empire, Hezekiah promptly commenced to achieve political consolidation. 

One of the mediums of the said unification was transitioning the till then pagan faith to a monotheistic religion contemporarily known as Judaism. The new theological framework mandated the sole worship of “Yahweh” [ the proto-Israeli God]. Veneration of all other deities including Yahweh’s wife was prohibited. This led to the crystallization of the Jewish faith as a monotheistic orthodoxy over the course of the next few centuries. However, the resistance offered by the kingdom of Judah was crushed by the Assyrian army despite the best efforts of the king and his loyal subjects.

Judah and Israel were subjected to multiple invasions in the next few centuries each modifying their culture and demography. However, it wasn’t until the Roman Empire that a lasting contribution was made to the nomenclature of the region. The Romans were a unique tribe of proselytizing polytheists who forced worship of multiple deities upon their subjects. This was fundamentally discordant with Jewish beliefs which had transitioned to being antagonistic towards idolatry and polytheism post the Hezekiahn religious reforms. The social strife was further exacerbated through the tyrannical rule of Nero leading to widespread economic disparities. 

The worsening situation gave away to Jewish Roman wars and the valiant Bar Kokhba rebellion, both of which were brutally crushed by the Roman empire. https://wou.edu/history/files/2015/08/JP-Johnson.pdf 

To add insult to injury, the ‘First Temple’, one of the holiest shrines in Jewish faith, was plundered and a pagan construction was installed at its very place. Further, the region was renamed Palestine from the word “peleshet” translating to enemy in Hebrew. Thus, it was psychological warfare to conquer over the vanquished subjects on the part of the Roman Empire, which unintentionally gave birth to the Palestinian identity; to be re-invigorated some twenty centuries later. 

The San Rimo Conference

Multiple invasions in the region forced the Jewish population to migrate to Europe and parts of Arabia over multiple centuries. The traditional hostility towards the religion and the hatred towards Jews for being “blood-liable” for the crusification of Jesus, compounded the ensuing tale of misery, delinquency and ghettoization. However, with the darkening dogma of religion came the light of emancipation and economic opportunity.

Money lending, accruing interest, or any establishment of financial institutions is traditionally prohibited in Christianity and Islam. This led to Jews employing themselves in such activities, accumulating wealth and social prosperity in the process. They were in fact, the primary financers of the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain and the subsequent Anglo-Boer wars in the late 19th century. 

The enhanced social capital led to activists like Theodore Herzl advocating for creation of a Jewish State along the historical kingdoms of Israel and Judah. The movement coincided with the fall and subsequent division of the Ottoman Empire following its defeat in World War-1.

It is interesting to note that the currently contentious and vibrant Palestinian identity was virtually non-existent throughout Islamic history. It was birthed as a part of the San Rimo conference which litigated the creation of the four mandates of Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. The area was renamed Palestine after 2000 years due to the Christian fixation with the Latin origins and adopted nomenclature of the Roman Empire.  Incidentally, the same San Rimo conference gave rise to the Balfour Declaration acceding to the creation of a modern Jewish State. Therefore, colonial endeavours inextricably tied the fortunes of two soon to be warring nations, birthed as a consequence of geopolitical and geographical ignorance. 

World War 2 and the Arab Israeli Wars

Waves after waves of decolonisation followed suit after the conclusion of WW2. The contentious region bore similar fate of a three-way partition. The area was divided into Israel, Palestine and the international mandate of Jerusalem. However, the geographical contours were far from being crystallized. 

Jewish migration to Israel had commenced post the Balfour declaration itself. The community brought with them economic prosperity and technological advancement “turning the desert green” within two decades. Increased employment, though, led to a collapse of eminent feudal structures thereby weakening the command of Muslim overlords in the Palestinian and Jordanian region. These developments as noted by the Peel Commission Report, antagonised the neighbouring Islamic mandates towards Israel thereby re-inforcing the traditional Palestinian hostility. https://ecf.org.il/media_items/290

The geopolitical fissures gave way to three Arab Israeli wars, each consolidating the territorial hold of Israel in the region. The country reached its zenith post the Six Day War in 1967 which led to its administrative hold over the Jordanian West Bank, Syrian Golan Heights and the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula. The new ‘country’ was over 3 times Israel’s current territory. However, these annexations were later ceased in subsequent peace deals with the three nations. https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/arab-israeli-war-1967\

Modern Era

The Palestinian cause has been sought to be legitimised and represented by chiefly two organisations, namely the Palestinian Liberalisation Organisation (PLO) and a terrorist outfit Hamas. PLO rose to popular support post the defeat of the anti Israeli forces in the 1967 war. Under the famed leadership of Yasser Arafat, it gradually transitioned itself from advocating the extermination of Israel as a nation, to espousing an amicable two state solution. 

However, the process of peace being excruciatingly slow and steadfast increments in Israeli settlements in West Bank and Gaza every time it emerged victorious, drew the organisation considerable flak. Subsequent radicalisation of the local population shored up support for hardline outfits such as Hamas. The terrorist organisation was established in conjunction with the infamous Muslim Brotherhood with the sole objective to usurp the Israeli state. It believes in waging a holy war (Jihad) against the Jewish Israeli State as a religious duty of Palestinian Muslims.It was Hamas which masterminded one of the worst ever terror attacks on Israeli soil on October 7, 2023. 

What Happened on 7th October ?

The October 7 invasion is the 3rd deadliest terror attack since the 1970s and has the highest amount ratio of per capita casualties in modern history. https://www.csis.org/analysis/hamass-october-7-attack-visualizing-data

Around 1200 Israeli nationals have been reported dead with several more kidnapped, raped and tortured. For context, the figures roughly translate to 2 lakh Indian victims when comparing the magnitude of population. 

This instance of terror has been attributed to a multitude of causal factors. Israeli intelligence suffered a rare operational failure due to possible absence of large scale sub conventional conflict for quite a few years. They had failed to detect military consolidation by Hamas near the southern border with stocks of ammunition buried under schools, hospitals and residential areas. To make matters worse, Palestinians employed by Israeli firms and homes for domestic aid or blue collar jobs were notorious in relaying information regarding the precise location of Israeli settlements along the southern border. This resulted in restricted alternatives for evacuation, thereby causing heavy civilian casualties.

Unfortunately, Palestinian casualties as a consequence of Israel counter strikes have been disproportionate in comparison. The Health Ministry of Gaza which has maintained a database of mortalities since the incident has recorded over 30,000 deaths. https://www.npr.org/2024/02/29/1234159514/gaza-death-toll-30000-palestinians-israel-hamas-warThough credible allegations of over reporting have been levelled by international agencies, this is still a considerable number. Though questions regarding disproportionate impact of military counter offensives must be asked of Israel, the answers are not straightforward. 

Gaza has one of the highest fertility rates (3.38) across the world with children making up nearly half of the population. https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians 

This has established correlation with Hamas using women and children as hostage shields in sensitive areas, so as to mitigate Israeli military presence in the region. Additionally, ammunition yards are often developed beneath schools, hospitals and residential areas. Although, Israel gives a ‘tap’ warning before bombing any such contentious region, incomplete evacuation and the ricocheted blasts as a result of blowing up of IED and other explosive material disproportionately impact civilian mortality. 

Geopolitical Stakeholders and their Vested Interests

Israel has consistently drawn support from western democracies such as the U.S.A, U.K. and France. It has also contributed militarily to the tripartite aggression against Egypt in the second Arab Israeli war in conjunction with Britain and France. Palestine, on the other hand has found steadfast support in the Arab world and Turkey.

These alliances, however, are not entirely based on ideological commitment and goodwill. As with all things geopolitical, they incorporate transferable exchange of tangible benefits. The famed Jewish lobby is active and influential in western countries, with them being a considerable vote bank and possessing the wherewithal to fund election campaigns. Israel also has a well entrenched intelligence network, which is instrumental in American operations in West Asia and Afghanistan. 

For Muslim countries bordering the contentious region such as Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon; a weak and battered Palestine corresponds to a burgeoning refugee crisis with significant demographic and economic consequences. Additionally, the Arab world is characterised by considerable dependency on the Ulema who play an important role in mobilising subjects despite discontentment with the royal regimes. Abandoning the Palestinian cause would risk antagonising these clerics whose support is crucial in resisting democratic aspirations. 

Middle and regional powers such as Russia, China and India have a relatively nuanced take on the conflict. They espouse consistent advocacy towards a two state solution coupled with expression of concern regarding human right violations in Gaza and West Bank. However, there is discordance pertaining to recognition of Hamas as a legitimate expression of Palestinian aspirations. Russia has for long engaged with Hamas and while it has not labelled it as a terrorist organisation, Moscow has condemned individual instances of terror perpetrated by the outfit. India, on the other hand, recognised Hamas for the first time as an active participant in the conflict with Israel through its official statement regarding the October 7 terror attack. 

Conclusion

The Israel Palestine conflict is a unique and complex admixture of theology, imperialism and geopolitics. The Jews have had a historical recollection of the region as their original homeland, despite waves after waves of migration arising due to devastating invasions. The Palestinian identity, through a consequence of Roman and Anglophile nomenclature also commands a theological relationship with Jerusalem, it being the place from which the Prophet is set have alighted for heavenly abode. The ensuing conflict has claimed several innocent lives thus far, often polarising countries and international alliances. The world should collectively strive for an amicable two-state solution in the region, with special emphasis on curbing human right violations.